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Decision guide · ROI planning

Home-service AI ROI calculator guide

A calculator is useful when it exposes assumptions. It becomes dangerous when top-line revenue is treated as return or a vendor’s result is copied into your forecast.

The full calculation

Recoverable opportunities = monthly leads × missed opportunity rate

Recovered opportunities = recoverable opportunities × recovery rate

Additional booked jobs = recovered opportunities × booking rate × close rate

Additional revenue = additional booked jobs × average job value

Additional gross profit = additional revenue × gross margin

Monthly labor savings = admin hours saved × loaded hourly cost

Monthly benefit = additional gross profit + monthly labor savings

Payback months = implementation investment ÷ monthly benefit

If monthly benefit is zero, payback is not applicable. The model keeps revenue, gross profit, and labor savings separate so a decision is not built on the largest-looking number.

What each input means

Monthly leads
Eligible new enquiries in a representative month, after documented spam and duplicate rules.
Missed opportunity rate
The share of eligible leads that were not answered, meaningfully contacted, owned, followed up, or resolved under the selected workflow.
Recovery rate
The share of those missed opportunities the proposed workflow could realistically recover—not every lead that exists.
Booking rate
The share of recovered, qualified opportunities that schedule a valid appointment.
Close rate
The share of additional booked opportunities that become the kind of completed job represented by the average value.
Average job value
Average completed revenue for the matching service mix, after cancellations, refunds, and exclusions.
Gross margin
The agreed share of completed revenue left after the direct costs included in the company’s definition.
Admin hours saved
Hours actually removed or redeployed each month—not the sum of every task touched by the workflow.
Loaded hourly cost
Wage plus the employer costs the finance owner agrees are relevant.
Implementation investment
The scoped implementation cost used for simple payback. Add ongoing software and operating costs separately when comparing net value.

How scenario ranges work

The expected scenario uses the recovery rate entered. The conservative scenario uses 60% of that recovery assumption. The upside scenario uses 125%, capped at a 100% recovery rate. Other inputs stay fixed, which keeps the comparison readable but does not model seasonality, capacity, lead mix, churn, financing cost, taxes, or uncertainty in every variable.

Change the inputs yourself to test those factors. Do not interpret the three outputs as confidence intervals or promised outcomes.

Avoid double counting

Double counting happens when the same benefit appears twice—for example, counting recovered jobs in gross profit and also treating all related office time as eliminated; counting revenue from an existing follow-up process as fully incremental; or combining technician capacity with jobs that the model already counted. Build a benefit ledger with one source, owner, calculation, and inclusion rule for each line.

Gross profit is more decision-useful than revenue, but it is still not net ROI. Subtract ongoing software, usage, oversight, exception handling, maintenance, financing, and other incremental costs before evaluating net return.

Implementation patterns from vendor-reported case studies

These are vendor-published, customer-attributed stories—not Build With Alivio client results and not independent studies. They show possible implementation patterns. They do not supply calculator defaults, prove AI-only causality, or guarantee a transferable result.

Vendor-reported measured customer story

Peaden · after-hours and overflow booking

Hatch describes AI qualification and booking connected to ServiceTitan, with transcript review feeding human follow-up. Hatch reports nearly threefold conversion on those calls over a matter of months.

What it does not prove: original and final rates, incremental revenue, gross margin, costs, and the contribution of one workflow are not disclosed.

Read the Hatch customer story

Vendor-reported measured customer story

Preferred Home Services · conversation review and coaching

Rilla describes AI-assisted review of in-home sales conversations, reduced manager review time, and customer-attributed changes in average sale and close rates.

What it does not prove: no control group, sample size, margin view, or separation from concurrent sales-process changes is provided.

Read the Rilla customer story

Vendor-reported measured customer story

Air Design · membership reactivation

Podium describes AI identifying members due for service, sending text outreach, checking capacity, and booking into the calendar; the story reports six weeks of activity and collected revenue.

What it does not prove: collected revenue is not incremental revenue or gross profit, and no prior-season comparison, holdout, cancellation rate, or software cost is shown.

Read the Podium customer story

Vendor-reported measured customer story

Harley’s Heating & Air · scheduling and dispatch

ServiceTitan describes virtual intake and AI-assisted dispatch combined with arrival-window and prioritization changes; the story reports more calls per technician-day without added overtime.

What it does not prove: the observation window, software cost, margin, service quality, and AI-only contribution are not isolated.

Read the ServiceTitan success story

Validate before a proposal

  1. Reconcile a representative baseline to the operating systems and financial record.
  2. Choose one bounded workflow and name its human owner, escalation, stop conditions, and rollback.
  3. Tag eligible records and define a validation window or practical comparison group.
  4. Report booked work, completed work, completed revenue, gross profit, costs, exceptions, and customer harm signals separately.
  5. Proceed only when the conservative case remains operationally credible.

For workflow context, review the HVAC systems page and the revenue leak checklist.